Marketplace Briefing: Amazon prices tick up — but the steepest increases are likely still to come
This is the latest installment of the Marketplace Briefing, a weekly Modern Retail+ column about the ever-changing e-commerce marketplace landscape. More from the series →
Amazon shoppers may not yet be feeling the full sting of tariffs at checkout — but signs are emerging that prices are inching higher, with a sharper surge looming this summer.
Data shared with Modern Retail shows a steady climb in prices across some Amazon categories as brands begin to price in the costs of new tariffs. According to Momentum Commerce, a retail consultancy that helps brands sell about $7 billion annually on Amazon and other online marketplaces, the average selling price of historically top-selling products — a consistent basket of 2024’s bestsellers — has climbed for 20 straight weeks. As of May 17, those average selling prices were up 2.7% year-over-year.
“It’s been this kind of slow increase,” said Andrew Waber, Momentum’s director of market research. “You’re not seeing sharp spikes yet, but the weekly growth has been consistent since the beginning of the year.”
That steady climb stands in contrast to what’s happening with items shoppers are purchasing most frequently in 2025. In that basket — a sample of the top 1,000 products by weekly units sold — average selling prices have actually declined in seven of the past eight weeks, dropping 1.3% year-over-year as price-sensitive shoppers opt for cheaper alternatives, a trend Modern Retail previously reported. For example, in categories like vacuums, floor care and wellness products, shoppers are consistently choosing less expensive options. This contrasts with categories like vitamins and supplements, where consumers remain willing to spend more.
“The biggest thing to watch in my mind is this consumer sentiment,” Waber added. “If prices are going up on core products while people are trading down overall, that’s a real threat to brands.”
Spreetail, an e-commerce accelerator that works with around 200 brands, the vast majority of which sell on Amazon, has observed similar price trends. Over the past four to eight weeks, Spreetail has tracked the prices of hundreds of thousands of products in the following categories: kitchen and appliance, lawn and garden, sports and outdoors, and home improvement.
Price increases have ranged from 2-5% across most categories, such as outdoor patio furniture and above-ground pools. While some categories have natural seasonal cost shifts, the current pricing trends don’t follow normal seasonal inflation patterns, according to Amit Dodeja, Spreetail’s CMO. Compared to last year, where they saw deflation of 1%, prices are now up, with some products approaching increases of 6% or more, making this trend unusual for this time of year, Dodeja said.
The recent 90-day easing of the U.S.’s 145% tariff on Chinese goods has given merchants some breathing room. But industry experts say third-party sellers, who provide about 60% of all products sold on Amazon, are still moving quickly to update pricing ahead of what they see as inevitable long-term cost pressures. On Wednesday, a U.S. trade court blocked most of the Trump administration’s sweeping tariffs, ordering the duties to be stopped within 10 days. The White House filed a notice of appeal.
Some categories are seeing more acute pricing shifts.
For example, in the vitamins and dietary supplements category, the average selling prices for weekly bestsellers jumped nearly 9% year-over-year in mid-May. Similarly, diapers saw prices climb more than 8%. Vacuums and floor care products are up 11% across long-time bestsellers.
Meanwhile, Spreetail has found that categories like baby strollers and car seats are closer to 10% hikes, as those imports are especially tariff-sensitive, Dodeja said.
During Amazon’s annual shareholder meeting last week, CEO Andy Jassy was asked about tariffs. He said the company hasn’t seen any meaningful increase in prices. In an April interview with CNBC, Jassy said third-party sellers may “pass that cost on” to consumers.
“Amazon consistently offers the lowest prices across the widest selection,” an Amazon spokesperson said in a statement. “We have not seen the average prices of products offered in our store change up or down appreciably outside of typical fluctuations across millions of items on Amazon, and we continue to meet or beat prices versus other retailers across the vast selection of products in our store.”
The company further said a small sampling is not an accurate reflection of Amazon overall, as there are hundreds of millions of items available for sale on its e-commerce website.
There could be more price increases to come.
Many sellers held off on raising Amazon prices in April and May because of the risk of losing the Buy Box — Amazon’s algorithmic advantage that goes to the lowest-priced seller — according to Brandon Fishman, CEO of Prime Team Agency, an Amazon consulting agency that works with about 60 online merchants. “Companies could not increase their prices on Amazon until they increased prices at other retailers so they would not lose the Buy Box,” Fishman wrote in a LinkedIn post.
“Every single company I speak with submitted price increases to Walmart and Target and are planning to increase their Amazon prices on June 1,” Fishman said. “You will 100% see inflation go up in June purely because of this.”
In Dodeja’s view, price hikes are inevitable due to the unsustainable tariff-related cost pressures facing e-commerce sellers. With potential tariff impacts ranging from 30-40%, according to Spreetail’s own cost modeling, Amazon brands can’t maintain their current margins without passing increased costs to consumers. Some sellers may ultimately need to raise prices by as much as 20% just to break even.
As Dodeja put it, “There’s no way many e-commerce brands could absorb that without price increases.”
The upcoming Prime Day event, slated to run in July, will serve as a crucial barometer. Retailers traditionally use the summer shopping event to offer deep discounts and clear inventory — but with tariffs reshaping cost structures and margins already squeezed, it’s unclear how promotional sellers can afford to be, Modern Retail previously reported.
Prime Day will also be four days this year, up from the usual two days, creating “a whole amalgamation of strategic considerations that these brands needs to go through,” Waber said, including what products to discount, how deeply to discount and whether their margins can sustain those promotions.
“You’re going to have tariffs on your cost of goods, your price is going to increase, and then you’ll have to layer on discounts and promotions,” Dodeja said. “I’m really curious how that’s going to play out.”
What I’m reading
- Shein is pursuing a potential listing in Hong Kong after its plans for a London IPO stalled, per Reuters.
- Meta is planning to grow its retail presence by opening physical stores and hiring retail employees, according to Business Insider.
- Business Insider reported that TikTok has entered a cost-cutting phase, implementing layoffs, stricter return-to-office policies and reduced travel budgets — particularly within its U.S. e-commerce division.